The PGA Tour has returned to the Blue Monster Course at Trump Nationwide Doral in Miami. The course is a 7,739-yard par 72 and has not hosted a Tour occasion since Adam Scott received there in 2016.
There are water on 16 of the 18 holes, 5 par 4s over 450 yards, 4 par 5s with a mean distance of over 600 yards, and three par 3s over 200 yards.
There are only a few delicate spots on this course, so the gamers who win right here drive lengthy, straight across the course, hit their lengthy irons with laser-point precision, and do not flinch, even on Sunday.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook (Contains tie) Topic to vary.
finest guess
The best way to play Scotty Scheffler
Full odds (tie):
Scheffler is the most effective participant within the area by way of pure expertise and consistency. He is within the high 5, if not the highest three, in nearly each course-related class, placing him in a unique stratosphere than most.
The one relative weak spot has been inconsistent method play for a lot of the season, rating 18th among the many area. That is the softest a part of an in any other case dominant profile. Scheffler’s 200+ yard band barely cracks the highest 60, which immediately corresponds to a course that repeatedly hits that vary with par 3s and lengthy par 4s. His profile is so dominant that it isn’t sufficient for it to fade.
Since February 2025, Scheffler has completed within the high 5 18 instances in 28 tournaments and has seven wins, together with one in 2026. He has achieved consecutive runner-up finishes on the Masters and RBC. (-148) appropriately costs gamers who convert at that fee.
The problem is your monetary threat. Probably the most related pink flag was final month’s T24 at Bay Hill, the place Scheffler misplaced almost three strokes with irons, however gained almost seven strokes at Augusta. The volatility of his irons is a threat, however when constructing playing cards, (-148) ought to be thought of a reliable play, not a price play. The hit fee might be definitely worth the worth.
The sensible argument for a win excessive 5 (+310) is that Scheffler’s ground at this course might be high ten. He does not explode. The highest 5 pays for what he does constantly, whereas the outright pays for outcomes which can be supported by historic knowledge, at a worth that the market units appropriately.
Principally, if you must decide one, the stakes are greater for the outright, however the high 5 provides you a cushion. No matter which quantity he will get, Scheffler is the participant most definitely to be in competition on Sunday.
Collin Morikawa Prime 10 +152 (tie)
Full odds:
Morikawa has the most effective method within the area, is elite from tee to inexperienced, and has an actual successful ceiling. Bermuda placing is the one caveat to confidently backing him as an outright, however he does not want a putter to crack the highest 10. Staying impartial means that you can get the job carried out. If he places effectively, he can win. He had been fearful about his again damage in current weeks, however his back-to-back top-seven finishes have eased these worries. His high 5 and full odds communicate to his worth. He’s in all probability finest suited to programs apart from Scheffler.
Hideki Matsuyama Prime 20 -110 (tie)
Full odds:
Prime 10 +2200
Prime 5 +495
To get +3200
His odds aren’t engaging, but when you may get an affordable worth for a participant who can no less than end inside the highest 10, he is value contemplating. Matsuyama’s accuracy with lengthy irons at important distances is among the many finest on my listing of gamers, rating him within the high 10 from distances over 200 yards. His Bermuda placing is optimistic and constant on tougher programs. He’s realistically behind off the tee (sixtieth place), however his method mixed with the standard of his placing ought to make up for a number of the hits.
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Akshay Bhatia, $8,100: He is probably the most intriguing factor to me this week. He’s the second finest iron participant within the area, along with his lengthy par 4 efficiency being a direct match and his Bermuda placing being impartial to optimistic. The one draw back is that it is quantity 48 from the tee. If you cannot discover the green on the water, it does not matter how good your irons are when you’re already one step behind.
I say fascinating as a result of he wins at Bay Hill and the highest 20 odds are +135. Nonetheless, he improved his putt by almost 11 strokes and received. It isn’t a reproducible attribute. The highest 20 is conservative, the highest 10 is affordable given his profile means, and his outright worth (+5,200) is engaging because the market has buried him at these odds. They are saying it is unlikely, however the knowledge exhibits it might be within the high 5. His ceiling makes him an excellent DFS possibility.
fade
Cameron Younger $10,200: We have to win to justify this worth. He has very sturdy method numbers and appears match, however this course would require accuracy from 175 yards many instances. That is the place he falls brief. From that distance, he is outdoors the highest tier. He is good at getting the ball nearer to the outlet general, however not from all distances. Should you transfer away, he loses his edge.
The remainder of his recreation is stable, particularly on the par 5s, so he can nonetheless hit a whole lot of good photographs and hold round, however this setup is constructed for gamers who stroll away with lengthy irons. Should you guess on him or play him in DFS, you are asking him to win within the very space the place he is not elite.
Alex Smalley $7,100: Smalley, who completed second within the Zurich Traditional mixed occasion after ending 14th at Valero, is a protracted hitter on the par-4s and ranks among the many high 10 within the area. However all the pieces else isn’t par for the course. He is high 35 on method, 68th on lengthy par 5s, detrimental with a Bermuda putter, detrimental on par 3s… all of that are protecting him from what he wants to have the ability to compete. A par 4 match alone will not present sufficient workload right here. Regardless of his stable efficiency this 12 months, it is arduous to belief him.
Gary Woodland $7,400: Woodland might be within the highlight after successful the PGA in Houston a number of weeks in the past. He ranks eighth off the tee, however all the pieces else issues, particularly on this course. His irons could be hit and miss. He has misplaced strokes on method in 4 consecutive video games, however has elevated them in three of his previous 4 begins. This course calls for elite lengthy iron play, and Woodland does not have it. He’s not within the high 50 in strokes gained on par 3s of 200 yards or extra. With three par 3s over 205 yards, stroke crosses are nearly assured all through the 4 rounds. If he makes detrimental putts on this facet with out making method performs to compensate, he’ll fade out.
