Muirfield Village is a real monster at 7,569 yards of elevation, rated at Elite issue, and has water in every single place on the slopes. Strategy play is the whole lot right here, the whole lot else is secondary.
Muirfield is actually an iron-playing contest dressed up as a full PGA occasion. And the issue is additional difficult by the best fairway miss penalty on tour. Miss the green and you may find yourself hitting an extended strategy from a clumsy mislead a quick, undulating, small inexperienced.
This week I centered on evaluating approaches and tee-to-green strokes to seek out swimming pools, then used the inexperienced surrounds to trim the fats and go away the whole lot else as noise. Since it is a marquee occasion, I nonetheless think about a couple of gamers.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook (Contains tie) Topic to alter.
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Ludwig Oberg High 10 +136 (tie): I obtained burned final week, however I am again to him once more. Oberg’s irons have been impartial at Colonial, however he hit the sphere first on strategy. So he had a down week. They occur. He is additionally second on the sphere from tee to inexperienced. His historical past on the course is robust, his strategy numbers have been sturdy in recent times, and he has been constantly in rivalry this season.
Actually, I am anxious in regards to the space across the inexperienced (No. 27). If he misses a inexperienced at Muirfield, he could leak extra performs than the highest gamers, however his greens at regulation charge are sturdy sufficient that he would not scramble out of hassle usually. He was shaky at finest on Sunday, averaging forty third within the fourth spherical, however he shot 66 at this course final yr, so he is reassuring that he’ll be capable of compete on Sunday.
High 5 -144 (tie): This once more? sure. Why not? Each week we basically ask, would Scheffler do what Scheffler did? I have not seen something that makes me cease. He has completed within the prime 5 in 22 of the previous 32 tournaments, with a accuracy charge of 68.75%. He completed within the prime 5 in 4 of the previous 5 tournaments and was runner-up in three of them.
With the analytical aspect to again it up, he gained this event two years in a row in two alternative ways. Final yr, he was elite with the irons, scrambles and across the greens. His placing was principally impartial, which was no downside in any respect at Muirfield. In 2024, Scheffler had probably the most ridiculous particular person efficiency numbers, gaining practically 13 strokes on strategy. All of his runs have been determined by iron play alone. His 2025 model was extra full.
This time, he completed within the prime 5 in all weighted strokes gained metrics, first within the subject on lengthy programs, and prime 15 in scrambling, expertise which can be extremely valued on this course. The worth is excessive for a chalk play, however the information helps the value. The one counter is that -144 could not work in your bankroll and actual cash is in danger on golf bets with excessive variance. However for those who consider his base is most individuals’s ceiling, it is a +EV wager.
On a regular basis illusions circulation and disappear
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Cameron Younger, $10,300: He’s at the moment in elite type, having gained the Gamers Championship and the Cadillac Championship, and has competed in two occasions as of late, with solely a pink level resulting from a stroke cross. He has a real top-10 proportion (+126), however the situation is course historical past, together with his 2024 T50 misplaced on strategy and final yr’s T25 misplaced on strategy. Regardless of his profile being aggressive on paper, this course simply would not sit properly with him. It makes extra sense to play him in fantasy than in betting, as his background at Muirfield may suppress possession and decrease possession for reside gamers.
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Alex Smalley, $8,000: Smalley has been in nice type, ending within the prime seven in 4 of the previous 5 tournaments, together with a runner-up end on the PGA Championship. He has had strokes gained information throughout the board since early April and is on the greens with no blips to fret about. So why does it fade? His $8,000 invoice speaks for itself. He missed out on Muirfield in 2022 and 2023, each of which had very adverse strategy video games. On different comparable comp seems to be, he missed three cuts in a row at Riviera, and on a looser comp course, he additionally missed a minimize at Bay Hill. After a number of makes an attempt on three associated programs, I had a really adverse variety of approaches and a horrible efficiency. Can he grow to be a greater participant now? Certain, latest sturdy data like Aronimink’s T2, Colonial’s T3, and even Quail Hole’s T17 are actual, however these are very totally different demand profiles. His model could not translate to the lengthy iron calls for at Muirfield.
JJ Spahn, $8,000: Though his strategy numbers are legitimately good, Spown missed cuts on key programs. He’s a tough participant to belief at Muirfield with no higher comp efficiency. Plus, he is misplaced large strokes in practically each event he is performed this season, which places him in danger on programs the place scrambling is already tough.
